New Genes in Traditional Seed Systems: Diffusion, Detectability and Persistence of Transgenes in a Maize Metapopulation
نویسندگان
چکیده
Gene flow of transgenes into non-target populations is an important biosafety concern. The case of genetically modified (GM) maize in Mexico has been of particular interest because of the country's status as center of origin and landrace diversity. In contrast to maize in the U.S. and Europe, Mexican landraces form part of an evolving metapopulation in which new genes are subject to evolutionary processes of drift, gene flow and selection. Although these processes are affected by seed management and particularly seed flow, there has been little study into the population genetics of transgenes under traditional seed management. Here, we combine recently compiled data on seed management practices with a spatially explicit population genetic model to evaluate the importance of seed flow as a determinant of the long-term fate of transgenes in traditional seed systems. Seed flow between farmers leads to a much wider diffusion of transgenes than expected by pollen movement alone, but a predominance of seed replacement over seed mixing lowers the probability of detection due to a relative lack of homogenization in spatial frequencies. We find that in spite of the spatial complexities of the modeled system, persistence probabilities under positive selection are estimated quite well by existing theory. Our results have important implications concerning the feasibility of long term transgene monitoring and control in traditional seed systems.
منابع مشابه
Detection of Transgenes in Local Maize Varieties of Small-Scale Farmers in Eastern Cape, South Africa
Small-scale subsistence farmers in South Africa have been introduced to genetically modified (GM) crops for more than a decade. Little is known about i) the extent of transgene introgression into locally recycled seed, ii) what short and long-term ecological and socioeconomic impacts such mixing of seeds might have, iii) how the farmers perceive GM crops, and iv) to what degree approval conditi...
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عنوان ژورنال:
دوره 7 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2012